There is an old saying, "Sell in May and go away". If you did indeed leave, the market took no offense and attained a gain of 2% in May. The S&P 500 now sits above 1900 at 1923. Finally clearing a major hurdle and opening the door to more unknown territory. This month we saw yields on the 10 Year Treasury Bonds fall to 12 month lows of 2.40% and according to Zillow its real time 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell below 4% for the first time since October of 2013. Gold falling 4% indicated a move away from the safe havens which was contrary to the moves in the bond market, which was expressing that something is not right... somewhere. Was this a distraction as the market slowly moved past major resistance and into new ground or a repositioning from investors that were caught short in bonds when most thought yields would be at 3% by now in the 10 year?
The S&P 500 is now up ~4% for the year! This again has investors wondering, how far do we go from here. Should we read into the move in bonds, where the smart money is said to be, or just close our eyes and hit the buy button and continue on the ride to more new all time highs? What is for sure is that we are not "currently" getting a conformation from other major markets, such as the DOW, the NASDAQ or the Russell 2000, which have yet to simulaneously hit new highs with the S&P. Have we seen a correction in the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which are now slowly catching back up, or is this just another head fake where investors are lead to the slaughter house in the belief that more new highs are just around the corner only to buy again at the top?
Making the Watchlist: Below are the stocks that I will be looking at over the coming months. I will provide the the current stock price and why I am watching them. I will comment on them as I continue to keep an eye on them. You will be able to see and follow their growth and/or decline. Chart links may be attached. Priceline
(PCLN) $1282- As mentioned two weeks ago in this assessment, PCLN was put on the watch list. It was deeply undervalued compared to its peers and now sits 12% above the previous mentioned price.
From the Trading Floor to the Option Pit: A quick look at whats on the trading desk
S&P 500 (SPX) - I sold a Vertical "Call" spread at the 1935/1940 strike. After breaking and holding above 1900 there is alot of talk about 1920 as a major reistance level, where it currently sits. A move to 1935, would give the S&P a 5% gain for the year.
Priceline (PCLN) - After opening up over $45 on Tuesday on above average volume, while also moving above its 50 and 100 day mooving average, PCLN showed extreme bullishiness by making this move, so I sold a weekly Vertical "PUT" spread at $1220/1215 strikes. Following another move up on Wednesday and Thursday the position was exited for a 3 day option gain of 12%.