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Weekly Market Assessment
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BlackPacific Capital

Stuck in the Land of Confusion

Weekly Market Assessment
Stuck in the land of confusion! This past week we have opened positive in the S&P 500 and by mid day, we sell off. This has happened the past 4 out of 5 days. The market cannot make up it's mind on which direction to head. Concerns of a credit bubble in China along with fears of war in Ukraine and a U.S. market hitting new highs each week continues to weigh on investors with fear of holding positions over night. The 10 Year Treasury Bond yield has broken down through a major support at 2.70% and currently sits at 2.64%. Investors are again fleeing into safety assets, as the equity markets climb a wall of worry. One thing is for certain, the bond market is not confused about the direction it is heading!     
We have broken down below the 10 and 20 day moving average in the S&P 500 and now the 50 day average is looking like a magnet at 1829! The buy "dippers" will be coming out, as volatility has now spiked over 25%. We have arrived at the cross roads again, where we decide to either buy the correction or take some chips off the table. The past has continuously proved the latter.  Last weeks "good" jobs report and the latest earnings season showed continued support for a slow and steady recovery, so a welcomed sell-off should provide another buying opportunity. The S&P 500 currently sits at unchanged for the year and looks to be getting tired as demonstrated by this weeks action. How the market acts at specific levels will again either reinvigorate buyers to step in or will we see over valued stocks finally come down from being irrational and be repriced!                  

Through the Looking Glass: My Perspective on Stocks Reactions to Market Conditions
We get a huge vote out of Ukraine on Sunday, which is a big market moving event! I will be looking to see what happens with the Crimea secession referendum vote on Sunday. I will be looking at the futures market as we will get to see how the market will react to any news coming out of the region and how Putin will respond to the event. 
As mentioned last week Nuverra Environmental Solutions (NES) $17.96 and Caesars Entertainment (CZR) $25.76, NES beat on its revenues but came in {CONTENT}.02 weak on its EPS. This sold off huge following its earnings release. CZR also missed on its earnings as revenues came in below expectation and sold of as well after it reported. CZR looks to have fond support at its 50 day moving average.   

Making the Watchlist: Below are the stocks that I will be looking at over the coming months.  I will provide the the current stock price, and why I am watching them. I will comment on them as I continue to keep an eye on them.  You will be able to see and follow their growth and/or decline. Chart links may be attached.
Yandex (YNDX) $30.39- YNDX operates an Internet search engine in Russia and internationally. With the conflicts going on with Ukraine and Russia this company has been caught in the cross fire and has since lost more than 35% of its market share. This is said to be the Google of Russia and looks extremely oversold and with any news out of Ukraine or Russia with a compromise or investors realizing how oversold this stock could see a huge comeback.   
From the Trading Floor to the Option Pit: A quick look at whats on the trading desk
S&P 500 (SPX)- As mentioned last week I sold a weekly Vertical "CALL" Spread at 1890/1895. I bought this back for a 3 day option gain of 20%. The S&P is currently at 1841. I sold another vertical "CALL" Spread at 1870/1875, after the major sell off on Thursday.   
Volatility Index (VIX)- I sold this position after the big sell off on Thursday, which I thought I was going to hold onto for a lot longer. Had a 1 week option gain of 45%.         
PlugPower (PLUG)- an alternative energy technology provider, engages in the design, development, commercialization, and manufacture of fuel cell systems for industrial off-road consisting of forklift or material handling applications. After an insane run up from $1.00 to $11 in 3 short month, I bought MAR $8 "PUTS" as the valuation on this stock is crazy. It sold off on Tuesday almost 40% on more that 15X average volume, as it looked like a true sign of capitulation. I will be looking for a continued sell off.     

6 Comments to Stuck in the Land of Confusion :

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Faustino Ludy on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 9:51 AM
hundreds, if not thousands, for solutions?
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Tommie Angeles on Tuesday, October 27, 2015 10:08 AM
our attendees in the?
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Leland Dagraca on Wednesday, November 04, 2015 9:59 AM
information necessary for self?
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annonymous on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 4:13 AM
good post
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ozessay on Wednesday, June 27, 2018 9:27 AM
Thank you soo much for taking out time and writing to us. I always enjoyed your blogs and the analysis you add in to your experiences.
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